The Sam Blog’s Picks for UFC 79 Main Card

By Sam Cupitt

Matt Hughes vs. Georges St. Pierre

Overview

This will be the third fight between the two. Matt Hughes obtained the first victory back at UFC 50 when he submitted the Canadian in the last few seconds of the first round, in the process gaining the welterweight title. The two rematched in November last year at UFC 65 and it was a completely different story, as St. Pierre dominated and scored a TKO victory in the 2nd round and claimed the title that Hughes won in their first encounter.

Since then Hughes scored a safe unanimous decision over Chris Lytleat UFC 68 and was scheduled to fight Matt Serra on this card, but the welterweight champion had to pull out due to a herniated disc in his back. St. Pierre, after beating Matt Hughes suffered a devastating 1st round knockout to Matt Serra but bounced back into form against Josh Koscheckat UFC 74 scoring a unanimous decision victory.

Sam Cupitt’s Prediction

I think the difference between this fight and the one back in November is that Hughes will be a lot more focused on trying to get the takedown. That still doesn’t change the fact that GSP has probably the best takedown defense in MMA behind Chuck Liddell and B.J. Penn. Hughes may get a takedown early in the fight that may earn him a round but it will only delay the inevitable. St.Pierre via TKO in Round 3.

Paul Cupitt’s Prediction

GSP I think has Hughes’ number. He’s too well-rounded and matches up extremely well against Hughes. He’s the far better striker, has the wrestling ability to keep the fight standing and the grappling to hang with Hughes on the ground. Hughes only really has strength over GSP and even thats debatable. Hughes will have a good 1st round before GSP takes him apart and finishes him off by knockout in the 3rd round. St. Pierre via TKO in Round 3.

Chuck Liddell vs. Wanderlei Silva

Overview

After failed attempt after failed attempt, it is finally here. A match between Chuck Liddell and Wanderlei Silva at many a time was the most anticipated bout in MMA history. Both fighters were light heavyweight champions in their respective organisations for a period of time and it was long disputed who the better 205lber was. Now they are both coming off consecutive losses and are both desperate for a win.

Sam Cupitt’s Prediction

I don’t care that this fight is probably a little late in arriving, I just want to see it. I’ve been going back and forth on who’s going to win this constantly. My first impression was that Wanderlei might run in wildy and get caught with a looping Chuck punch but having seen videos of Wanderlei train and the dedication he is showing, I think he may fight more tamely. Looking at some of Chuck’s interviews, I am getting the feeling this could be his last fight, regardless of the outcome, so I think he will want to leave with a bang. I’m thinking we are going to see at some stage these guys standing toe to toe and going at it. If that is the case, Wanderlei will have too many tools. Silva via 2nd round KO.

Paul Cupitt’s Prediction

Its tough to call this one because we don’t know what Silva has left after two devastating knockout losses. Liddell’s losses were more humiliating then devastating and the only effects he may have from these losses is confidence whereas Silva took career ending beatings at the hands of Cro Cop and Henderson. However, I think Silva’s time off will heal any injuries he may have and he’ll be more focused and better prepared for this fight. Liddell’s striking style really works vs wrestlers but against a striker like Silva I think he will struggle like he did with Rampage and Jardine as Silva will be trying to knock Chuck out rather than take him down. Chuck for all his power has poor striking technique and can be picked apart by other strikers as he was against Jardine (I just want to add that I did pick Jardine to beat Chuck) and I think Wanderlei will pick holes in Chuck and stop him in the 2nd round. Silva via 2nd Round TKO.

Ryoto Machida vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou

Overview

Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou burst onto the scene this year with two first round knock outs over, at the time, two top ten light heavyweights. He was a complete unknown before he knocked out Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Ricardo Arona but since then MMA fans have been itching to see the African Judoka with heavy hands again.

Ryoto Machida is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Kazuhiro Nakamura at UFC 76 which moved him up to  3-0 in the UFC and 11-0 overall. Machida is a very technical and agile fighter, who uses these strengths to out manouvre and frustrate his opponent.

Sam Cupitt’s Prediction

This fight’s outcome will be determined on which Machida turns up. If we get the Machida that fought David Heath, Sokoudjou is in for a long and frustrating night. If we get the Machida that fought Nakamura who was willing to exchange, Sokoudjou could be adding another top quality Brazilian to his growing resume. Sorry to say, but I think Machida will know what he has to do win and will pick his shots and evade the”The African Assassin’s” offense. Machida via Unanimous Decision.

Paul Cupitt’s Prediction

Machida’s hit and run style will be too slick for Sokoudjou and he’ll pick him apart en route to another unanimous decision win. Rameau could score a knockout if he can find Machida’s chin but he’s not as technically sound as Machida is in terms of striking and Machida should be able to exploit this. However with Rameau’s Olympic caliber judo and wrestling experience as well as his natural size advantage, Rameau could take this fight to the ground and stop Machida with ground and pound, but Machida is the safe pick. Machida via Unanimous Decision.

Melvin Guillard vs. Rich Clementi

Overview

Apparently this is a grudge match and it has been brewing for quite some time. According to some articles on UFC.com the hatred between TUF4 veteran, Clementi and TUF 2 veteran, Guillard is very real and very strong.

This fight will be Guillard’s comeback from an 8 month suspension after he tested positive for cocaine after his loss to Joe Stevenson. Previously to that “the Young Assassin” was on a two fight win streak in the UFC. Rich Clementi is coming off a submission win over Anthony Johnson at UFC 76 and has a 2-3 record in the UFC.

Sam Cupitt’s Prediction

I see this fight showcasing the main points of both these fighters. Guillard, who is coming off an enforced 8 month lay off due to a drug suspension will be fired up and come in swinging. He will connect a few times and Clementi will whether the storm after being knocked down late in the first round. The second round will begin and Guillard will be frustrated and will slam Clementi who will in turn lock up a triangle choke early in the second round. Clementi via 2nd Round Submission.

Paul Cupitt’s Prediction

I think Guillard’s initial explosion will be too much for Clementi and he’ll score a quick knockout. If the fight goes past the 1st round I favour Clementi on points but I don’t think it will. Guillard via 1st Round KO.

Soa Palelei vs. Eddie Sanchez

Overview

This heavyweight clash was suprisingly upgraded to the main event for a reason that is not entirely clear. Eddie Sanchez really hasn’t offered anything that would suggest he is anything more than at best, a middle tier fighter, while Soa Palelei is a UFC newcomer who has had one fight in three years. It is probably reading into it a bit much, but showcasing a promising Australian fighter on arguably the most stacked UFC card of the year could be a sign that the UFC is quite serious in promoting a UFC event in Australia in the new year.

Sam Cupitt’s Prediction

I spoke to Elvis Sinosic about Soa Palelei. He seems to think if the Australian were to win it would be GnP. Sanchez has shown nothing to me that would suggest that “The King of Rock n Rumble’s” prediction wouldn’t come true. Palelei via TKO in the 1st Round.

Paul Cupitt’s Prediction

Soa’s got kickboxing experience and Sanchez IMO is, technically very poor on his feet. This is a bad matchup for Sanchez and I see Palalei kicking Sanchez’s legs out from under him and knocking him out in the 2nd round. Palelei via TKO in the 2nd Round.

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